Looking into 2011 Market View and Analysis

By right, this posting should appear before the first trading
day of the year for all the readers to have a guide and feel
about what to expect in 2011, but it was unwittingly delayed
for about a week, and here it is:

Firstly, many readers know that I write a Market View on
a daily basis before the market opens and have a Skype chat
available for the readers or whosoever to ask questions about the
market situation/sentiment/condition and individual and multiple
pennies, mid-caps and blue chips stocks. But who is exactly behind
the blog and why is he writing  a blog and market view for the
investing/trading public? Is there any motive or purpose in
creating such a blog?

I created this blog way back in October 2008 when there were
blood everywhere on the street and the Fear monster is tearing
many traders/investor apart with mounting losses.
If you are interested in history lesson, then you can refer back
to my very first post in the blog:
How to make money investing/trading in Recession
At that time, I saw that many retailers invest or trade in the
stock market on trading tips or simply having a herd mentality
and follow what others are buying. At first, I started a mailing
list to send out the foreign brokerage reports to the member to
enable them to read what the analysts are saying about a stock
or a sector of stocks, and followed up by setting my first blog:
Stock Reports For You in March 2008. The blog lasted for quite
some time before it was being forced to shut down due to
some BB's interference. Oh well, these are all history and
propel me to start the Stock Lobang blog that I am known.

So exactly who is Stock Lobang?
I am just a normal guy who had gone through our educational system,
served the NS and completed all ICT cycles and is a now a MR
(Military Reserve, so you can guess my age?!). I enjoy durian, satay,
nasi lemak, prata,  chicken chop and like many Singaporeans, is always
looking forward to the next good food and meal. In short, I am just
a very normal guy who enjoy what I am doing and try to do the
best that I can. Like most, I was once in the corporate world after
my study, but after a few years, I know deep within myself that I
don't have the shrewdness and ruthlessness to climb to the top of
the corporate ladder and I don't enjoy the office politic that is always
playing out around my work area. On a very sunny day, I handled in
my resignation letter and left the dark pit to let the others to fight it
out to be the ultimate victor. I only regret never really fully utilised
the paper qualification that I have earned and achieved.

Since young, I have been reading up on what is happening in
this world, the business, banking and finance news, and somehow.
in my sub-conscious mind, the path may had already been set.
Just ask yourself this question: which section of the newspaper
do you read first every morning and which section do you first
go to when you are in a book shop or library. The answer to
the question maybe what your career path should be.

Let me see, I have been trading full-time for over a decade and
for the time being, I will continue to do so as long as my energy
level and chart reading skill is still working well in the market.
You may have read that I am contemplating to switch to Forex
trading in my blog entries or in Skype, but I am staying put with
Mr SGX and we will see how long more I am still here.
Throughout these years, I have been through the ups and downs
of our market and I have seen a lot of people and stocks come and
go in these years too. I don't want to say that I know all stocks well
and know exactly what is happening in our trading arena. But I can
confidently say that I know enough to be in this for the long haul
and I have helped many retailers to make money from Mr Market.
I will continue to provide the Market View daily and hope that this
will be a long-standing relationship between the readers and me.
Sometimes, I feel that I am expecting too much from myself and
I am also doing too many things concurrently which are both
physically and mentally straining, but I will continue my way
for the time being.


Ok, many readers are curious to know about my trading methods
that I use daily to evaluate, select and trade stock.
I don't have the holy-grail to 100% trading winners, and I do
have losses from trading, but as long as my profits surpasses
my losses, I will keep sticking to my trading methods, while
learning and evaluate other methods, and at the same time
fine-tuning my own methods.

After so many years of using the charts as a tool to my
stock tradings, I know what works for me in the market, and
what don't. For a start, I don't believe that indicators work
in the stock charts, so you won't see me talking about RSI,
MACD, ADX, in my blog, as in my very own opinion only,
they are totally useless in my view. Many people swear by all
these methods, and some even conduct lessons based on all these
commonly available indicators in the charting software, which I
find disturbing and distasteful, but if that is how some people
make their money, then I will leave to the consumers to make
the decisons. Only recently, I added Moving Averages (MA)
into my trading arsenal and it is working very well for a set of
constant that I am using, Don't ask me about the figures that
I use, I won't and can't disclose it but it is not the common
numbers that a lot of people are using.

The most simplest method that anyone can learn is the usage
of Support and Resistance. Many people underestimate the power
of using simple method like this, and they have really miss making
money from Mr Market with only this one simple method.
One other method that I have been using for many years and it is doing
good for me is the Darvas Box method, which you can find out more
in my blog. I also believe in Patterns Recognision and Volume
analysis, Sentiment, Liquidity and Volatility, and other some
methods that I have gathered after so many years in SG market
which I cannot disclose, if not, I will have to eat grass from now on.

But if you know me well, you will know that I always reiterate that
the most important criteria in trading is all about know when
to get out of the market, both when you are right and hopefully
when you are dead wrong. That brings out the issue of Money Management
which many investors/traders don't really follow, and that
is how the market can move on everyday because there are so many
"Greater-Fool" in the market. If you don't know the "Greater Fool Theory",
then I am sorry that you maybe one, so read up on it by google the term.

For those who are interested to see what stock did I recommend
for 2010, you can refer to the posting on the 5 January 2010
Must See Must In Watchlist potential stocks

In 2011, I believe that there will still be a lot of money-making
opportunities but I expect that this year will be the beginning
of the end if you know what I am saying. I expect to see many
micro-pennies being "dig-out" by speculators and punters alike,
and with some incredible hearsay and story on the stocks which
will lead the stock into a buying frenzy. Expect to see many "strangers"
in the Top Volume coupled with rotational, seasonal and situational
interest in the different sectors and themes. I am not saying that
micro-pennies will forever will one as there are hidden gems and
I have noticed and pick-up a couple. In order for the micro-pennies
to be re-evaluate and re-rated, it need to have some fundamental
reason to back it up, like popular new products, new technology
or it is trading way below its Net Asset Value (NAV).

Many things will happen on our home soil this year and the most
important event will be the General Election which I expect will
be held in June this year. The government is likely to give a great
angpow to the citizen after a staggering achievement in our
economy last year. The angpow will be announced during the
Budget 2011 and the citizen will receive the 1st angpow of the
package before the election. This is the usual carrot tactic that is
use by the government as we have seen in the last few elections.
I don't want to really talk about politic in the blog as I don't want to
take side with whatever politic parties. As long as the government
elected does things that is beneficial to the citizen and for the
long-term survival of the nation, then I may just enjoy the carrots given.

This election may springs some surprises and freak results in some
constituencies. There will be tough fight in every Single Member
Constituencies (SMC) but the main concern will be whether the
oppositions can wrestle a or some Group Representatives Constituencies
(GRC) seats. The oppositions have been boosting the overall
standard and credibility with quality and qualify personnel joining
the opposition parties. With the Gen X and Y citizens together in
this election, and looking at the discussion in the online forums and
chats, this may turn out to be a banana skin to the leading party.

Another event to look forward to is the merger between SGX
and ASX which maybe completed in the 2nd half of the year.
The positives for this merger will be the size of the entity
after the merger and the number of products available to retailers.
We will be trading Australian commodities and mining stock
in 2011-2012 soon.

We will also get to "enjoy" the benefit of high-frequency
trading though many will disagree with me with this point.
There are definitely pros and cons in high-frequency trading but
if SGX is willing to introduce it into our arena, there must be
mechanism and counter-measures circuit-breaker should something
went wrong. Also in the pipeline is the introduction of Dark Pool
trading, which are trading venues that don’t display quotes publicly,
helping investors minimize price fluctuations and save costs.
The retailers won't feel much impact with the Dark Pool, but it
is an inevitable addition.

On a side note, I disagree with the exchange trying to scrap the
90-minutes lunchtime trading break in exchange for a 10% more
trading volume. I usually have a full lunch and take this break to
read up on what happened in the morning session, run some errands
and occasionally even take a short nap of 30-45 minutes to
re-energise for the afternoon session. This is a much needed break
and rest for the traders and although where SGX is coming from,
but a total scrap maybe too much to take. I can still enjoy the
break in 60-minutes if this is possible for SGX.

In 2010, we have a dual-listing frenzy from companies who
feel that they are undervalued in our exchange, or wanted to expose
themselves to some other bourses that will appreciate the true
beauty of the company. Many choose to dual-list in Hong Kong,
Taiwan and even Korea with some choosing to list in Europe.
This trend will continue in 2011 as usually the companies
will receive a re-valaution of the stock and some even
rise through the roof with ever-climbing stock price since
announcing the plan of the listing. Frankly speaking, if you
have read my blog, I am not really participating in such a
dual-listing stories as I know that I can achieve the same
if not better result trading other stocks.

I continue to believe the Commodities, Oil & Gas and
Offshore & Marine will be the main focus of 2011, and
although stocks in these sector have been rising in 2010, they
are likely to surge further this year. The palm oil counters
will benefit from the tight supply and demand of its end-products.

A word that we are going to see a lot in 2011 is the dreaded
"Inflation". Just today, there is an article that I quoted "Singapore
Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam Monday said inflation is
expected to rise further in the first quarter of this year before moderating
in subsequent quarters.

He said the economy is likely to see inflationary pressure due to higher
food prices and rising global oil prices.
Tharman told lawmakers in Singapore's parliament that these external
factors are likely to impact Singapore and "raise domestic prices in coming months."

Separately, Singapore Senior Minister Of State for Trade and Industry
S. Iswaran told lawmakers the government  needs to look out for
"overheating risks" in the economy. "


To put it in layman term, the money is getting smaller, and if you
are still putting your hard-earned money in bank earning a mierable
0.25% per annum, you are really committing a huge mistake.
The money can be parked with blue chips and high-yield stocks
like REITS and even ETFs.

This year, I am going to start another 2 blogs that is still
not ready and have no posting yet. But if you want to bookmark
it or put it into your favourite, below are their web address:
Singapore IPO Lobang &
Singapore Stock Investment


I will rest my eye and hand for today and will put out the
die-die must see, must put in watchlist stocks in the next
few days.

To be continued.....