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Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Late Late Market View 2014 and Mentor Group Update

I am really very very late this year for my
yearly view on how the market will behave
and react this year. Actually, I am sure that
the readers had read so many different diverse
views from as many "experts" in the press or
from various brokerages. Most painted a rather
doom and gloomy outlook of the market this
year. Frankly, their views together with what
I am going to write on are mean to be a reference
and you have to form your opinion and
analysis of the market this year.

At my side, I really can't see a bad year ahead.
Maybe I am a cup-full person but from the charts,
I can only say that there are bound to have normal
ups and downs, corrections and excitements along
the way. It is all just part of the normal market
happening every year. You can't expect the market
to go up in a 90 degree slope and I don't think
you will see a drastic 90 degree drop in the market
this year as well. This type of extreme case will only
happen to the micro and/or penny stocks.

By the way, the readers should have read about the
proposed plan to curb speculative trading from last
week newspaper. In my honest opinion, the measures
are just a plain waste of time and effort by SGX.
Frankly, many of us are plain gamblers and speculative
punter by nature, it is deeply engraved in our running
blood already. What is 5% collateral when you are
trading the stocks that can make you much much
more profits? Many will gladly put in some amount
so that they can continue their punts everyday.
Useless measure.

The proposal to reduce the contra period from T+3
to T+2 is another useless and bullshit way from SGX.
We are just following other market in implementing
this long-awaited plan. Do you think the contra activities
will drop because the settlement period is reduced by
one day. On the contrary, I believe that the activities
will increase as one can know the "result" of the punt
in a shorter period. To me, it won't affect me much.
I told many many readers that to me, when I enter
a stock, it must move within that day and even that
hour. If not, I am always ready to admit defeat and
take a small loss while aiming for the next target.
I definitely don't need 2 days to tell me that I am right
with my trade.

For the record, I dislike the circuit breaker measure
from SGX to limit the rise and fall of a stock at anytime.
To me, this measure is counter-market behaviour and
it limit the real happening of a stock. I know that this
measure is to protect the not-so market savvy investors
so that they will have time to react to drastic drops
like what happened to LAB last year. Ok, I don't wish
to discuss further but just to voice my disapproval of
this measure.

Now, we come back to my view on the 2014 market.
I am not sticking out my neck this time but I believe
that we won't see a major market crash this year.
Many analysts and reports pointed out that the
US market is heading for a major correction after
hitting repeated high after high. It is very easy to
see such occurrence on hind side when it eventually
happened. My view is that a gradual correction
is a great rest and relax for any market and I really
can't see a major drastic crash in the horizon.

For our local market, I am having a bullish view that
we will see the index heading higher this year.
With the momentum, we should see good play-up
this year with many stocks surging higher.
Some will ask me for some stocks that I belive
will be heading higher. You don't need to look too
far for such undervalue stocks, just look at the
recent IPOs. Frankly, I am quite surprised to see
stocks like Pacific Radiance and Linc Energy trading
at today's price. They are not even 10% above their
IPO listed price. My personal view is that Pacific
Radiance is a >$1.20, that mean another 25%
upside from current price. Linc Energy is a rather
peculiar stock but technically I am looking at a
>$1.30 range for the stock.

Some readers keep on asking me to recommend
some books to read on the market. I had suggested
a few titles in previous blog posts but I would want
the readers to look at "Monster Stocks: How They Set
Up, Run Up, Top and Make You Money" by John Boik.
In fact, while you are at it, try reading more books
from John Boik. I have very different and varied
views from the people reading his books on my
recommendations. I can only say that different readers
from different backgrounds will have different views.
Try reading them and then have your own opinion.

Lastly, we come to the Mentor Group update.
The application is over and I am really glad to receive
a wonderful responses from many readers. It really
warm my heart and brain to see the high-standard
answers from the applicants. If you never receive
a application-rejected email from me, then I can
only congrat that you have been accepted into the
group. Give me more time to sort out some issues
and I will be with you guys soon.

Some concerned readers asked me where I have
been lately and what happened to me as I am not
online at Skype and not replying to emails.
Let's just put it as I am taking a long break for the
time being....



Please be aware that I am not a Certified or Qualified Financial Adviser, the views and recommendation on this blog is purely my own.

Please seek investment/trading advices from your Financial Professionals, Dealers, Remisiers before making any investing/trading decisions.

I will not be responsible and liable for any losses incur from my views and recommendations in my blog.

Take note that I may have current positions or seek to enter or add positions in the stocks that I wrote in my blog.

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