Market View 22 September 2009

Hello everyone, I am back!!
It is so great to be back in our beloved Singapore,
but not much for the ever-so-hot weather.
Haha...

The 3 weeks vacation break was a superb time
for me to get recharged and I am glad that I
took it even during the hot market period.
There will always be money-making opportunities
anytime, and you simply can't make all the money
in the world.

I was back during the weekend, and spent the last
2 days catching-up on many reports, and reading the
essential news, and most importantly, looking at the
as many charts to look for direction and momentum
in the market and stocks.

Sad to say, except for a couple of strong winners,
most of the Hot stocks are about the same range
3 weeks ago. And yes, like some people still keep
mentioning, the market is still Hot, but......
Based on my observations and personal view,
I am sticking my head out to say that I seriously
expect a major selldown to happen very soon.
How major and how soon?
I don't know, but from my charts reading and
analysis of the financial news and happening,
the storm is brewing, and it will hit the shore.

So am I saying that the blog readers should sell
all their stocks and hold on to cash now?
No, I am telling them to be prepared for an
imminent market action, which is very much
still my personal view.
So will I still be trading in the market and
stocks since I believe that the selldown is
coming?
Yes, why not?
But I will be fighting guerilla warfare with
the Hot stocks for now on. I will be participating
in any pump-and-dump actions by the "players",
and going for quick and prompt profits, and
gladly sell-off when the tide is turning or it
trigger my trailing stops.
Some people will say that I am just having sour-grape
now, and is talking the market down because I did
not make any money last 3 weeks.
Ok, I don't wish to argue or oppose to such people's view,
the market will show its true colours. I maybe wrong,
and at the moment, I am wrong, but what if I am right?
Anyway, it is just my personal observation and view.
All disclaimers apply.

How time flies.... I started my blog in 19th October
last year, and this blog will soon be one-year old.
It is still a very young blog in all senses, but I believe
it have help and benefited many readers, and I will
continue to do so, unless and until I am unable to
use the keyboard, or one fine day, my TA knowledge
suddenly disappear overnight! :-(
I started to push for many Hot stocks when they are
still very cheap, and for some, even when they are
below the $1 mark. Noble, Olam, NOL, Straits Asia
and Indoagri were once just pennies, look at where
they are standing now!

During my vacation break, I receive a very interesting
email from a blog reader. She is a current student in
one of the local university, and seek my help in completing
one project involving the US stock in that they
need to select stocks that will outperform or at least
match the real market performance in 8-weeks.
I tried my best even in vacation mode to assist her in
the project by giving her my 2-cents view. I told her to
select stocks from the Top Volume since she definitely
will need a volatile portfolio for this 8-week.

I also wrote "I will assume that the objective of the project is
not really to see how well is your chosen portfolio's performance after
8-week, and it isn't about TA or FA, it is all about how you
choose your stocks. You need to present the case that you
choose stocks over a diversity of sectors, and you are
spreading the risk across the stocks. If you choose all stocks
from the same sector, then you are either going to have the best result
or the worst result on market returns, but your lecturer will
not give you a good mark for such stocks selection.
Marks will be allocated to a well-diversified portfolio
in dealing with systematic risk or market risk and non-systematic risk.
You need to explain your selection criteria in this case.
Your textbook and reference books will have plenty of
academic-correct theories to justify your case.
The keyword in this case: Spreading of Risks."
My views was later confirm to be correct by the student,
so I shall see how was her portfolio performance after the 8-week is over.

I also observed that although I specifically stated that
I will be on vacation, and this blog will be shut down
during this period, the traffic at the blog is still strong.
Many readers are still coming to this blog at each trading
day, and it was shown in the traffic stats. Frankly, this blog
has about 250 readers each trading day, and at least a-third
still visit the blog everyday even when it is not open for business.
I thank you for your support. I know that as compared to
other trading blog, a "readership" of 250 is nothing,
but at least I know that there are readers out there who
believe and trust my market view, and it is for all
these readers that I will continue to post market view day-in-day-out.
If you have benefited from the blog yourself,
you can recommend to your friends and relatives,
so that they can also win $$ from Mr Market and
at the same time, be beware of any pitfalls ahead.
Just treat this blog as a niche trading blog but I certainly
hope that the "readership" will increase.
Give me any comments if you want, I welcome all
constructive and "destructive" view, regardless of whether
you agree with my views or oppose it. Simply shoot me?!

I will not be trading today, and will just look at the market
action from the spectator stand to have a feel of the
momentum once again. Because I am not trading today,
I won't be recommending stocks also.
I will be back tomorrow.....

Enter any position with a Cut-loss level & Trailing Stop,
and Please practice strict (Risk)Money-management.
If you don't like what you see in the market,
simply don't trade.

If you have Skype, and would like to chat with me about
stocks and all others,you can ring me at my
email address: stocklobang@yahoo.com
I have currently a couple of members skyping with me
everyday,and they are having good trading results.

As usual,
Stay Alert but be Aggressive too.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat !!

市场生存座右铭: 风林火山