2009 Market Recap and Look into 2010

In a flash, 2009 is now history, and we are in a new trading
year 2010, so I see that it is good that a recap of the past
trading activities of the year is being look-at, and also
look into the future trading days of 2010, and to see how
will Mr Market behave this year.

It is so interesting to note that I started this blog in October
at a time of market panic, depression and chaos, and guess
what did I write in the very first entry of the blog?
I wrote "My advise to mid-long term investor is to start putting
money into the stock market now, if your investment horizon
is at least 2 years", "we are pretty near to a market bottom,
and we should see global and singapore market gradually stablise
and consolidate."
If you are interested to look at history and see what exactly did
I write at that time, here is the link:
http://stocklobang.blogspot.com/2008_10_19_archive.html


On the last trading day of 2008, I gave a list of stocks that will
perform superbly in 2009, and I am glad to say that they are the
great winners of the year 2009. This is the exact list that I wrote
in my blog on 30 December 2008.

The Must-See & Must-in-Watchlist Trading stocks:(not in any order or preferrence)
1. Ascendas Reits
2. Cosco
3. Ezra
4. Noble
5. NOL
6. Olam
7. Straits Asia
8. Swiber
9. Raffles Education
10. Yang ZiJiang
11. Yanlord
12. IndoAgri
13. Midas

At that time, you can still catch many of the above stocks well below
$1. Imagine having Cosco, Noble, NOL, Olam, Straits Asia, YZJ,
Indo at a great bargain price and look at how much they are trading
now. The returns can be described as incredible but succulent.
I received quite many emails at that time saying that the market
will be going down, and STI will fall below 1000 points and lower.
I replied them with a "you can stay sideline and watch the show
if that is what you want, but you will regret months later"

Indeed the market bottom-up in March and with all the liquidities
coming into the market, the surge rebound is really fast and furious
and that left many readers stranded and clueless about what to
do next. I continue to call for buying and accumulation into quality
stocks, and also at the same time, giving trading recommendations
to those readers who prefer to trade intra or contra for quick
but nevertheless good profits.

It was a good feeling that I started to receive good comments
from the readers "Your evaluations were indeed very reassuring
and confidence boosting. Appreciate very much if I could be in your
mailing list too. I think You are the most accurate analyst I've seen
so far.", "Hi,I'm a newbie to stock trading. Your posts are my great
guides for the past 2 months", "Hi SL,Honestly, I dunno what is the
best word to use!!! I have been ignoring your emails until last 2 days
I started to click to view ur blog.. I just BANG my chest!!!!!!!!!!!
No words.. all are listed yet I missed out so much.. HUGE Gains are
there... just pick only to ride the profit and .... Sob..cry... wasted...
I mark every of ur email as important now!!!"
If you want to see what others are commenting on the blog,
visit http://stocklobang.blogspot.com/feeds/comments/default

Ok, enough of the history lesson, now we should look
into the future to see how we can squeeze every cents out of
Mr Market in the year 2010.

I still believe that we should see a very good trading profits
in 2010, with returns coming from great trading opportunities
in the stock winners, and from capital gain from the invested stocks.
Will we be able to see a repeat in the returns of 2009 this year?
Seriously, I don't see why it is not possible again, but..just maybe
the returns will not be that incredible but it will be wonderfully
hefty profits again. But take note that it is not going to be a
smooth sail for the entire year. We will see storms, headwinds
along the way, but I don't see the ship capsizing but it will
always move on after all these "disasters".
I will give my Must-see, Must-in-watchlist recommendations
in the coming blogs so watch for it.

If you want to read some assuring pieces, how about straight
from our own Prime Minister Lee. In a column from Bloomberg
News last week, PM Lee said that "The worst of the global economic
crisis has passed and the world should see a return to "modest but
positive growth" in 2010, "The year 2009 has turned out better than feared,"
"Decisive responses by governments, and the coordinated efforts of the
Group of 20, succeeded in averting financial disaster and restoring confidence."
The prime minister added that governments need to take steps to "stabilize
their economies, protect their citizens and prepare their countries for
the recovery." He also emphasized that countries must avoid
"self-defeating protectionist measures" and work to revive the Doha
Round of world trade negotiations."

Ok, many readers will inviteably ask what are my stocks recommendation
for this year. I always like to tell people to stick to the winners,
they are the winners for many reason, which I don't really care for all,
but I do know that they are the funds and traders' favourite stocks
and are likely to continue for this year, until they fall out of favours,
and got kick-out of the round due to serious fundamental issues
from the company itself, or maybe it influence the entire sector.
But, don worry, there will always be new darlings of the market,
and old darlings being discarded, or maybe become the attraction
once again, it is just part-and-parcel of the game.

One bold forecast that I feel strongly about, and I am sticking
my head out for this view. I believe that the techs are finally
going to be in the limelight again after an about 10 years gap
when the tech bubble bursted. It is really time to closely monitor
the techs, and at the same time, accumulate the market leaders
as they will be the first to move when the techs wind start to form
and start blowing. Take note of techs like Hi-P, Broadway, HuanHsin
and the likes for a start.

I am still quite bullish about the Offshore and Marine, Commodities
and the Water/Enviromental sectors for this year, and it should come
no surprise if you have been following the blog for quite some time.
I received many emails from the readers last year asking why I never
look at the property stocks that is charging higher day-after-day.
I can only say that I like to stick to stocks that I know better,
and if you look at the trading returns, my recommendations outperform
the property stocks. I am no property-guru of any sort, but if you
ask me about the sector and maybe the property scene locally,
I can only tell you as long as the stock market is surging, the sector will
be Ok, but once the music stops, the bubble will burst too.

Ok, many readers are curious to know about my trading methods
which I understand. I don't have the holy-grail to 100% trading
winners, and I do have losses from trading, but as long as my
profits surpasses my losses, I will keep sticking to my trading
methods, while learning and evaluate other methods, and at the
same time fine-tuning my own methods.

After so many years of using the charts as a guideline to my
stock tradings, I know what works for me in the market, and
what don't. For a start, I don't believe that indicators work
in the stock charts, so you won't see me talking about RSI,
MACD, ADX, MAs in my blog, as in my very own opinion only,
they are useless in my view. Many people swear by all these
methods, and some even conduct lessons based on all these
commonly available indicators in the charting software, which I
find disturbing and distasteful, but if that is how some people
make their money, then I will leave to the consumers to make
the decisons.

One of the method that I have been using and it is doing
good for me is the Darvas Box method, which you can find out more
in my blog. I also believe in Patterns Recognision and Volume
analysis, Sentiment, Liquidity and Volatility, and other some
methods that I have gathered after so many years in SG market
which I cannot disclose, if not, I will have to eat grass from now on.
But if you know me well, you will know that I always reiterate that
the most important criteria in trading is all about know when
to get out of the market, both when you are right and hopefully
when you are dead wrong. That brings out the issue of Money Management
which many investors/traders don't really follow, and that
is how the market can move on everyday because there are so many
"Greater-Fool" in the market. If you don't know the "Greater Fool Theory",
then you maybe one, so read up on it by google the term.

I will stop here for the time being, and I will continue with the
Die-die must-see list very soon...